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Il y a 1 jour · Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model. 1.
- Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?”
For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat...
- Silver Bulletin | Nate Silver | Substack
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker,...
- Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?”
Œuvres principales. Nathaniel Read Silver dit Nate Silver, né le 13 janvier 1978 à East Lansing dans le Michigan, est un statisticien, sabermétricien et écrivain américain spécialisé dans les calculs statistiques des résultats de la Ligue majeure de baseball et des élections. Il est le fondateur du site FiveThirtyEight.
- Américain
- Nathaniel Read Silver
- Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [ 2 ]
Il y a 1 jour · In our forecast of the popular vote in Pennsylvania, the race has shifted from a 0.6-point lead for Harris on Oct. 1 to a 0.2-point lead for Trump; In Michigan, a 1.8-point Harris lead is now just...
- G. Elliott Morris
Il y a 2 jours · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which...
Il y a 3 jours · For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat intended), polling averages and forecasts would have to just toss these polls in the average without any adjustment. But that isn’t happening. Here at Silver Bulletin, for example, we weight polls based on pollster quality and adjust them based on pollsters’ house effects. And ...
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.